ING admits independence talks worry

Feb 20 2013

A Dutch banking group has raised its concerns about the impact of Scottish independence negotiations on economic growth.

The group, ING, questioned whether the SNP's timetable for achieving full statehood in March 2016 is likely.

Failure to agree terms by then would lead to a "protracted period of uncertainty" which would be bad for growth in Scotland and the rest of the UK, the group said in a briefing note to investors. The note also found that the UK Government's refusal to pre-negotiate means voters are "largely in the dark".

ING said that Scotland "would undoubtedly benefit" from taking geographic shares of oil and tax, and from having direct control of policies aimed at the economy. But it added: "The problem, as we continue to state, is the managing of the transition.

"There will be many months of discussion to agree a deal on the split of assets and liabilities, currency union, fiscal rules and such like, and we see the risk of slippage to the SNP's stated aim of full independence in March 2016. This threatens a protracted period of uncertainty, which is not going to be good news for growth in either Scotland or the remainder of the UK."

The group "suspects" economic independence for Scotland would be more limited than many voters thought would be the case. Accepting that Scotland would be accepted as a European Union member, it predicted Scotland will not be negotiating from a position of strength.

"If we are right, one of the conditions will be formal euro adoption at some point," the note added.

A spokesman for Finance Secretary John Swinney said the report makes clear that focused economic policy would be a key benefit for an independent Scotland. He said the Scottish Government wants to maintain sterling and there is "no intention" of joining the euro.

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: "The nationalists' independence plans will need to address the concerns of businesses and staff across the UK who value and benefit from a strong Scotland operating within the UK partnership of nations.

"Scotland stands with a lot to lose in any negotiations and the SNP must set out whether an independent Scotland would see higher taxes, greater borrowing or cuts to public spending in order to facilitate the SNP's growing independence spending commitments."